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NATO scrambles jets as Swedish leader urges help directing Ukraine’s drones

By isabelle // 2026-05-22

• Ukrainian drones crossing into NATO airspace have triggered a political crisis in Latvia, collapsing its government.
• Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson proposed NATO help Ukraine direct drone attacks, blurring the line between guidance and active participation.
• NATO has scrambled fighter jets multiple times to intercept drones while some members urge Ukraine to keep UAVs away from allied territory.
• Russia warns that assisting Ukrainian drone strikes from NATO soil could be considered an act of war.
• The escalating incidents risk a single miscalculation turning a stray drone into a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.

A cascade of drone incursions across Baltic and Nordic skies has pushed NATO to the brink of a new kind of escalation with Russia, one where the alliance may shift from passive airspace defense to active guidance of Ukrainian long-range strike operations. Ukrainian drones have repeatedly strayed into the territory of multiple NATO members while en route to Russian oil terminals. In response, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has called on NATO to help Ukraine "direct" its drone attacks "in the right directions." The drama has unfolded over the past several weeks, intensifying in mid-March, and it involves at least five NATO countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Romania. What happened is a string of aerial violations that, in Latvia's case, collapsed a government, and has now prompted NATO to scramble fighter jets on multiple occasions. The most dramatic fallout occurred in Latvia, where drones struck an oil storage facility on May 7 without being intercepted, setting off a political chain reaction. First, Prime Minister Evika Silina fired her defense minister. Then the smaller party in the coalition withdrew, costing Silina her majority and forcing her resignation. The collapse is believed to be without precedent; no NATO member's government is known to have previously fallen as a direct result of a drone incident linked to the war in Ukraine. Sweden's Kristersson, speaking at a joint press briefing with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, did not shy away from the alliance's potential role. He accused Russia of trying to "give the impression that other countries are kind of doing things that are not legitimate." Then he offered the controversial prescription: "We should really not be open for the Russian narrative on this, but instead, of course, help the Ukrainians as much as we can to direct, to help them direct their attacks in the right directions." Rutte, for his part, placed full blame on Moscow, claiming Ukrainian drones are violating NATO airspace simply "because of the full-scale Russian attack against Ukraine and Ukraine having to defend itself." Neither official explained how directing Ukrainian drones from NATO territory differs from launching them from NATO territory, a distinction Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service has already dismissed.

The Kremlin's narrative vs. the ground truth

Russia has dismissed attempts to blame it for Ukrainian drones entering NATO airspace. Moscow argues that the incidents show Kiev is either unable to control its long-range UAVs or is being enabled by neighboring NATO states. The SVR warned that NATO membership will not shield countries that help Ukraine launch attacks into Russian territory. On Thursday, the Russian envoy to the OSCE, Dmitry Polyansky, said that NATO's military activity near Russia's borders has reached Cold War levels. This is not hyperbole. A "stray" Ukrainian drone crashed into the chimney of a power plant in Estonia in late March. This week, a NATO F-16 fighter jet was scrambled to shoot down another UAV. Lithuania has experienced incursions by suspected Ukrainian drones on at least four occasions.

Allies urge caution even as NATO planes scramble

The incidents have not been met with universal enthusiasm within the alliance. Poland's Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Thursday that Ukraine "must be more precise" with its drones, echoing similar warnings from Estonia and Finland. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur asked that Kyiv keep its uncrewed aircraft "as far from NATO territory as possible." Yet military realities on the ground suggest precision is becoming harder, not easier. Ukrainian long-range drones have been crossing Baltic and Nordic airspace with increasing regularity since mid-March, targeting oil export infrastructure in northwestern Russia — specifically the Primorsk and Ust-Luga terminals in Leningrad Region. Those intensified attacks are particularly noteworthy amid rising fuel prices triggered by the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. On Wednesday, Lithuania issued air alerts that disrupted air travel and other activity in the capital and led to the president, prime minister, and other senior officials being taken to shelters as a precaution. President Gitanas Nauseda delivered a televised address, calling it an "important lesson" for citizens and institutions. "We must memorize it well," he said, while also cautioning against overreaction or panic.

A dangerous game of blame and trigger fingers

The Baltic region has become the proving ground for a new kind of hybrid warfare, one where the line between accident, provocation, and active alliance support for a belligerent nation blurs with each passing drone flight. NATO's response has been contradictory: scramble jets, shoot down drones, and simultaneously pledge to help Ukraine guide its strikes. This is not the Cold War brinkmanship of missile silos and naval blockades; it is something far more chaotic. A single navigation failure, a miscalculated jamming signal, or an overzealous interceptor could turn a "stray" drone into a casus belli. For the people of Vilnius and Riga, the air raid sirens are no longer a drill. They are the sound of a war that refuses to stay on the other side of the border. Sources for this article include: RT.com DW.com NATO.News-Pravda.com

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